Guide: Help in Sports Betting

How to choose the games?

Choose league games where the favorite win as often as possible.

To get this information follow the odds and results of various European leagues.
We may see major differences between the leagues since the 65% winning favourites in Turkey to 43% of English League 2. We can see the table if we are otherwise normal betting underdogs and so the lower leagues of England and first leagues in Portugal and Belgium are markets to explore.

Choose league where are fewer draws.

Usually bet on the victory of either team, so the main draws are our enemies.

We can see that the Germans and French are the kings of the draws, and on the other hand we have the Netherlands where less than 1 draw every 4 games.

Choose leagues where there is a good goal average.

0-0 is usually a result to avoid, and we must invest more in leagues where these results (0-0, 1-1) did not predominate.
The concept behind this idea is that for a higher number of goals the probability of winning the best team is greater. That is, the weakest team can get lucky and score a goal, the difference is 1 or after it suffers suffers 2 or 3.

We can also draw from this table that the Netherlands is a country of overs and that Portugal and France is the unders country.
Bet on the home team.

We all know the home factor, but sometimes we do not give the proper value.

As we can see in every 4 games we can expect 2 wins from teams at home, 1 draw and a victory of the teams playing away.
So unless the visiting team is undoubtedly better, bet in away team is a risk.

Do not bet weak team vs. weak team.

When we see a bad team playing against a theoretically worse we tend to bet on them. What happens is not that bad is not good enough to win the other and usually gives a draw.

Do not bet on games to eliminate.

It is in Cup competitions that more surprises occur. The so-called small teams can make history in a game and most of the statistics no longer make sense that the difference in motivation is there for these games.
Moreover, the best teams tend to rest players, which often leads to more surprises.

Always take into account the history of the team.

For too bad that the team is at a given time, its fame and history is never forgotten by opponents. One example is the Guimarães that, while now the 2nd Division, will always be regarded with respect and even some “fear” by teams who play against them.

Do not bet on teams that would normally have red cards.

So, South America, no thanks. Red Cards are factors that we can not predict, and rare is the game where there is not one.

No abuse of handicaps.

When we know that a team is far superior to other chose a high handicap and sometimes goes wrong. It should be borne in mind that teams win after being relaxed, the players saving themselves and are rested by the coach etc …

Do not bet on teams that have more than 3 regular players injured / punished.

We think that even without the injured team is better than another, but we must not forget that in the absence of these, mechanisms are lost and play quality is worse. If the captain is injured so, no bet, because without the focus of leadership, the team is suffering.

Do not bet on derbys.

In these games the psychological component is red hot, and everything statistic is sidelined. As we are gamblers and not magicians, no bet. Not for nothing is it said that usually wins in derbys who is worse.

Be aware of the H2H.

Sometimes devalue the H2H, but there are cases where it is especially important. If a team does not win the other to 4 or 5 years for something … will also have in mind the H2H at home for each of the teams.
Also, a study in which 80% of teams had a H2H almost completely in its favor in the last 5 years before the game, earning over 80% of games. You can see it on Sports-Punter.com.

Always know the schedule of the team.

Ever wonder if the team on we bet will be a game in European competition, derbys, tough games, etc. on the following days. In addition there are savings unaware of the players, the coach can save some stars of the team.

Do not bet taking into account only a series of victories.

Do not know if it’s psychological, but there are several teams that reach the 4 consecutive wins, and neither of these 1 / 4 to reach 5 wins in a row. After some victories, players unconsciously relax, and here comes the bad result. Furthermore it should be taken into account were the victories against whom, if they were against teams that had the obligation to win, the motivation is less than if they won that caused surprise.

Know about the team’s objectives at the beginning of the season.

Whether by limitations that appear throughout the season, for sale of players, loss of motivation, lack of support or similar, normally teams tend to adjust to what was expected of them.
Take for instance the Setúbal last season that was largely in the first round and then face up to a combination of factors has declined some good places.

Use sites where you follow the variation in odds over time.

Large increases or decreases may indicate changes of variables, so the pick must be re-studied. This information can be found at Online Betting Guide (OLBG).

Take care records of earlier times.

A strong team at home last season, even if this season is weaker, will continue to factor home a great point in his favor. As an underdog out, not with 2 booster that is going to make a weapon out of games.

When a “big” does not win a game, think about betting on this.

With few exceptions, the big teams do not fail to win two straight games. Either by pressure from fans, by playing the bass drum in the dressing room or at risk of losing the title race, this rarely happens.

Always look for information in international forums or sites of clubs.

Factors such as motivation, injuries at the last minute, 11 holder, travel time to the team that plays out like it was made subject to and can only be obtained this way. Moreover, people in the country concerned are usually more opinion formed about each game that the aliens.

Have some tipsters as “guides”.

There are at least 5 tournaments tipsters underway in several sites where the winners have very high gain%. At the end of any analysis, does not hurt to see if these tipsters have the same opinion as us about specific game. If they agree, is more support for the pick, if you disagree with is good to see if you missed the variables to consider some factor.

How to manage the account?

Make regular withdrawals.

The fact that we have a bank with a lot of money makes us thinking about getting stronger. It is better to go up when it comes to an end and we start again with a new goal.

Do not bet consistently live a hothead or bets that are about to close.

Without proper analysis a bet becomes a lottery, and generally lost the lottery.

Prefer single or double bet, since from there the probability of success begins to be small.

Always know and earn a multiple of those with 10 to 40 euros, but we must not forget that until we get there maybe more than they spend 40 euros and profit so there is no signal.

Use simple with odds greater than 1.50 and double with odds of less than 1.60.

Below 1.50 in most cases not worth the risk of betting simple. If you really have much confidence in this game is preferable to combine it with another that teams are widely favorite thus reaching a next odd or even greater than 2.

Opt for a fixed stake%.

Instead of making vary greatly value betting with confidence, most times it is better to opt for a default value for betting. For example 5% of stake per bet seems a good value, being 3% of the stake for doubles.
This prevents a bad series lets us into bankruptcy, and prevents an excessive confidence in a particular let us pick a bad mood.
To the degree that our stock increases, the value bet and increases as it decreases the value of bets also decreases.

Do not run after the injury.

We all know that in theory, but rarely will we listen. We lost 10, we want to bet 15 to recover the 10, lost 15, bet 20and so on.
The negative series are real and should not enter them.

Why think of betting on Asians handicaps?

Many people still do not use this type of betting, some bookmakers still do not even have available, but are becoming increasingly important.
How often do we fail to invest because although we think that a team can win, but the draw is also possible?
With the Asian, if a draw is always returning at least part of your bet, and in some cases all the stake is returned.
But for full explanation will windersports.net and will see that it is one of the paths.

How to tell if the odds are in an acceptable range or not?

Crossing the data the way home from the team that will receive the game the way out of the visiting team can arrive at a basis for the odds.

If we assume that the home team in the last 10 home games is 6-3-1 and 2-3-5 off the visiting team will have:

Victory for the home team 6 + 5 = 11 in 20 games = 55%
Draw 3 + 3 = 6 in 20 games = 30%
Victory from the visiting team 1 + 2 = 3 in 20 games = 15%

The scheme is to add the concordant results, the number of home team wins with the defeats of the visiting team.

The odds would be 1.8, 3.3; 6.65.

If we find odds above this value, then it is likely to take.
Of course then we can change these values by giving different values to consonants victories against the league positions of the opposing teams.
We can also use as a factor H2H modeler these odds.
In OLBG there is a section of daily value bets, is not a bad idea to go there.

Author: Andre Santos (_Zigoto_)

ps: get this work by André, because it summarize some basic rules of care and to take account of the bets that may be useful to ApostaGanha members.

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