Weight of Money on the Betting Exchanges
November 4, 2008 ás 1:59
Autor: Dunadan Read by Readers
This article serves to clarify and provide information about the Weight of Money and its influence during the trading process, which is expected to be always successful. “But what is the Wieght of Money?” In English, Weight of Money or WOM has their initials, which is more commonly used to “Shorten” the “Word of Mouth,” mouth to mouth or say-what-he said, considered the best advertising and marketing form, among other expressions which are not now called for here. I want you to read this article carefully and in final, use “Word of Mouth” to inform your friends, colleagues and know, okay?
Well, WOM or Weight of Money, what does that mean? Without going into great details from economic nature and / or financial, the Weight of Money refers to trading using the principles of demand and supply. If there is a huge demand from people who want to bet against (to lay), they all will compete with each other and the price should rise. And the opposite also happens.
Are you remember those stories about the climbs in the stock markets? No, only the crises after their breaks? Not yet? Remember those movies where an auction and there are four or five, if not more, people to argue and furiously arduous, move after move, a particular work of art or a rare piece of jewelry unique in the world, bringing the price and hence the profit for the auction house and of course for his client vendor? Okay, now you can get an idea of what is the Weight of Money. However, unfortunately things do not always work as expected. This is an obstacle that makes trading difficult.
Is there anything from two and a half years, many traders contacted the author of this article stating that the Weight of Money was dead, no one had done the proper funeral and that it no longer worked! As part of the funeral, I’m not sure, but many have written several articles during that period about the death of the Weight of Money, just do not know if they did in the obituaries section. So, what is the author’s opinion on this subject? You better be him to take the floor and get in direct speech, but do not be surprised if I stop him suddenly once in a while.
Anyway, I pass the word to the author: my view on this question has two reasons. First choose the event type and then consider the difference between live trading and pre-live trading.
Many people involve in a horse race 10 minutes before the market close, and stop their transactions just before the market close itself. Do not forget that trading on horse racing is done before and during the same, but the markets are quite different, this is, the negotiation on a horse race before it get almost nothing to do with trading conducted so horses shot out to full speed cages. As explained in an article called “Multi Task,” you must always remember what type of event that you are trading and when the event is suspended or not and reasons why the market could be suspended. It is important to be prepared well in advance and know the “game rules.”
When considering a horse race, we must remember that the race will be suspended before the actual race begins. As soon as the race goes to a state of “in-running” or “initiated” will only be suspended when the race ends and the first horse to overcome the post, the goal or finish line.
If we now consider negotiating “pre-race” or “before the race,” we must understand that trading will be stopped and suspended at the market close before the race start and for no other reason, and the market close is a scheduled event and knowledge of all traders.
In contrast to the horse races, take into account that in soccer, before the games begin, the market operates in exactly the same way as in horse racing, since the market was also lifted, moments before kickoff. However, when the game enters “in-play” or things start to become interesting and with a difference.
Soccer matches in-play “are suspended when a goal is scored and as we know and perceive, scoring goals is neither a pre-determined event or a scheduled event. A goal can happen at any time of 90 minutes of the meeting. The in-play market for soccer “can also be suspended if there is any expulsion. Remember that in horse racing, the race is only suspended when the first horse crosses the finish line.
Alongside with the above, we must also take into account what was said in the article on Multi-Task and remember that when we are not “in running” or “in-play”, so, in markets that will only be suspended moments before games or races begin, the actual prices are not subject to any erosion / natural reduction due to the likelihood of an event happening or not.
To recap, we have the article on the Soccer Field, from which this excerpt retreat: when we are in a “in play” or “in running” market, we are in a timed event, whose duration has a time limit during which prices will vary according to the event probability that we bet (for or against) currently happening. As a goal.
Imagine that Sport Lisboa e Benfica beats Academica Coimbra 1-0 in a soccer game, as the minutes run out the clock and the pointer is approaching 90 minutes, the price for a bet in favor of win Benfica (“back”) will be getting smaller. In contrast, prices for bets in favor of both draw or Académica de Coimbra, will grow and grow. Let’s imagine that we have 20 minutes missing at the end of the match and Benfica is quoted at 1.35 for the BETS IN FAVOUR (BACK). As we are observing the time to run, the weight of money will work beautifully, all tilted to one side, while the bet price for the Benfica victory heads inexorably towards 1.00, no appeal or wrong, if I may add.
WOM spoofing or “Imitating the Weight of Money”
As professional traders or minimally educated and / or clarified, where or when we should be prepared to do a bit of spoofing or “sham”, with some cunning, creating a trap that leads to deception, a artifice or subterfuge to spook out “ weekend” traders, less experienced, resulting in a money transfer trap from them to ourselves, a sort of fire view, that distracts the attention, like a magician creates its illusion?
For those who like history, remember it will certainly three episodes in the fire, used in many fires, was used by three different generals, to outwit enemies. One was Chinese, the other was a gladiator fled to the Romans and a third was in charge of the defense of a Portuguese square in India and the Ottoman army was facing a superior number of ships, soldiers and sailors. But I digress from what really matters. Have you found the answer to the question posed above?
When and where did they deceive the “ducklings”, forgiveness, less experienced traders to get their money?
The answer: In the relative calm and quiet of the pre-game activity where the suspension of play or the suspension of racing can not cause us unexpected trouble.
Answer B: During a in-play session which a goal may ruin us almost completely?? Think about it.
Traders should be aware that other professional traders who know that the Weight of Money is one of the favorite tools of other traders will be prepared to try and fool the weaker traders, deluding them, making mistakes and “catching them” in order to “relieve” us of our money. They can do this in perfect calm and harmony of a pre-game session or a pre-race meeting, knowing that the only thing that can make them stumble and inexperienced traders miss is their market misreading. The market drop lack gives professionals a distinct advantage.
The way this happens is, because the picture is clear to the professionals carry a market in one way or another with money they never really have intentions of trading (this happens all the time), they mislead other traders in that the market will “walking or pointing” in one direction, and when the “money illusion professional” is in fact withdrawn from the market and cleared, the market moves in the opposite direction to another, like a pendulum. The result is that inexperienced traders lose money. This happens all the time and it happens all the time also in financial markets.
Weight of Money works
What can we do? If something was 100% sure, markets do not exist, so do not expect the weight of money something else works 100% of the time, and affected to be prepared to fit in a loss and cut your losses when this happens … Let it be known that in the pre-race markets, the achievement of the Weight of Money can occur and does happen. I repeat again, the logic is that there is money that can be placed either side of BETS IN FAVOUR (BACK) as part of the BETS AGAINST (LAY), money that will never be traded, he is simply canceled when the trader professional responsible for it wishes. To close this subject, usually there is enough money in one hand, then the weight of money will work normally.
Weight of Money In-Play
Still remember the example of Benfica indicated earlier in this same article? Well, if you look at it again and consider that Benfica’s 1-0 win at a price of 1.35 with 20 minutes to be played in the game, you’ll see the price of BETS IN FAVOUR going lower. Following therefore the logic of my explanation above. At this point, see the Weight of Money in action and running in all its splendor. So a price physically descend from 1.35 to 1.00, there must be more people willing to BETTING FAVOUR (BACK) that BET AGAINST (LAY), and if you look at the graphics and other instruments “sensors” for standardized measure of various programs, I am speaking of “bots”, you will see this happens in real time.
The reason the Weight of Money works so well in the markets in-play “is because firstly, we are in a timed event, with a limit well defined and known to all, and we see the weakening of the price itself, and second, we have a lack of professionals who are always prepared to place their traps and snares and mislead and deceive the smallest, the small fry, or if you prefer, rabble. And the professionals are missing because a goal can suddenly cause them huge losses, so they remain distant and absent. Imagine putting 10 thousand euros in the win for Benfica, then Académica de Coimbra draw on top of last minute discounts … No professional will expose their account to this risk size if he had no intention of actually making the transaction. Unless the wilder time.
So those who say the Weight of Money is dead (and buried), it is wrong my friends, is alive and well, kicking vigorously, so be very careful with Spoofers in action, and Action on the pre-race markets and for pre-soccer markets.
As they walk around …