Dallas Mavericks @ SA Spurs – NBA
April 29, 2010 ás 19:18
Pick: Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) @ 1.90 in Bet365 / Result: (87-97)
The Mavericks get the job done in the last game by defeating the Spurs 103-81 as they showed more heart and passion facing a possible elimination game. Obviously I expect the Spurs to bring another kind of effort to the court tonight however I still think that we have some value with Mavericks because 4.5 points will be priceless if this game goes down to the last possession and that’s exactly what I’m expecting for tonight.
Even though the Mavericks have been struggling on the road in the playoffs in the last years the fact is that they have been a better road team this season. They finished the regular season with the best road record in the league and I have to remember that in the two games played in San Antonio in this series they had a legit chance to won both games – they lost by just 7 combined points!
The Playoffs are all about adjustments and the Mavericks more exactly Rick Carlisle has been made the right adjustments in this series and I expect them to pay off tonight.
Earlier in the series the Spurs’ big 3 – Duncan, Ginobili and Parker – simply torched the Mavericks on the offensive end. However the Mavericks made a great job in containing the Spurs big 3 in the last 2 games, just look for their stats:Tim Duncan – Game 4 = 1-9 FG Game 5 = 3-9 FG
Manu Ginobili – Game 4 = 4-16 FG Game 5 = 2-7 FG
Tony Parker – Game 4 = 4-9 FG Game 5 = 6-15 FG
It was the Spurs’ supporting cast that won the game 4 being George Hill the MVP of the game by shooting 11-16 from the field. However in game of this magnitude I don’t think that such an inexperience player will have once again these kinds of numbers.
Also Rick Carlisle finally gave up of the “Erik Dampier experiment” as Dampier received a DNP last game. Basically Dampier has been awful in all series by being constantly outplayed and outworked by McDyess. Just look for his +/- numbers when he was on the court during this series:
Game 1: 0
Game 2: -20
Game 3: -2
Game 4: -11
Brendan Haywood is now the starting center and Najera his backup and these two players are way more aggressive on the defensive end because offensively…well they only have to rebound and setting some picks.
In game 5 Caron Butler enjoyed his biggest game in the playoffs by scoring 35 points. Surely that I don’t expect him to have another huge game today but it was good to see the Mavericks’ winning big and Dirk Nowitzki not having a monster game.
This contest will be a tough and physical contest since the start and in my opinion we are getting some value with the underdog and I’m taking Dallas in here as my Single Dime Play